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Olympique Khouribga vs Yacoub El Mansour — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Yacoub El Mansour
Yacoub El Mansour
10/27/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 4Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olympique Khouribga39%
×Draw31%
Yacoub El Mansour30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.09
Yacoub El Mansour
0.92

Olympique Khouribga creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
Yacoub El Mansour
1.00

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
Yacoub El Mansour
1.07

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Yacoub El Mansour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
70%
Olympique Khouribga or Yacoub El Mansour
69%
Draw or Yacoub El Mansour
61%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
16%
Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
66%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
30%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
10%
Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals
60%
Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals
23%
Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
56%
Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Yacoub El Mansour away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Yacoub El Mansour attack 1.00 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
39%
level
31%
Yacoub El Mansour scores more
30%

Olympique Khouribga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Yacoub El Mansour

Yacoub El Mansour beat Olympique Khouribga 2-1 in Botola 2 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.