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Olympique Khouribga vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
4/27/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 25Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Khouribga47%
×Draw30%
USM Oujda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.24
USM Oujda
0.77

Olympique Khouribga creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
77%
Olympique Khouribga or USM Oujda
70%
Draw or USM Oujda
53%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
21%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
71%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
35%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
13%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
54%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
18%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
67%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
47%
level
30%
USM Oujda scores more
23%

Olympique Khouribga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs USM Oujda

Olympique Khouribga beat USM Oujda 3-2 in Botola 2 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.