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Olympique Khouribga vs Renaissance Berkane — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
3/31/2023CupCup · Round of 16Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Khouribga17%
×Draw30%
Renaissance Berkane53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
0.58
Renaissance Berkane
1.25

Renaissance Berkane creates 116% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
Renaissance Berkane
1.67

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
Renaissance Berkane
0.00

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–120%
0–213%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
47%
Olympique Khouribga or Renaissance Berkane
70%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
83%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
4%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
44%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
12%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
2%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
71%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
36%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
25%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.58

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.67 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
17%
level
30%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
53%

Renaissance Berkane at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Cup on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.