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Olympique Khouribga vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
4/13/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 22Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Khouribga41%
×Draw31%
Raja Beni Mellal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.12
Raja Beni Mellal
0.88

Olympique Khouribga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
72%
Olympique Khouribga or Raja Beni Mellal
69%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
59%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
17%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
67%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
31%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
10%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
59%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
22%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
59%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
41%
level
31%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
28%

Olympique Khouribga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Olympique Khouribga 0–0 Raja Beni Mellal

Olympique Khouribga and Raja Beni Mellal drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.