Olympique Khouribga 4–4 Olympique Safi

Olympique Khouribga

FT

4 – 4

Olympique Safi

4/27/2019

Botola Pro · Round 26Stade du Phosphate (Khouribga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga40%

×Draw28%

Olympique Safi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique KhouribgaExpected goals in this matchOlympique Safi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.09

Olympique Khouribga

1.26

Olympique Safi

1.09

Olympique Khouribga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

1.23

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.23

Olympique Safi

0.96

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.22

Olympique Safi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Olympique Safi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw

68%

Olympique Khouribga or Olympique Safi

72%

Draw or Olympique Safi

60%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

18%

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

72%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

36%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

13%

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

66%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

30%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

56%

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more

40%

level

28%

Olympique Safi scores more

32%

Olympique Khouribga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff