Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olympique Khouribga vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
2 – 1
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
8/26/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 1Stade du Phosphate (Khouribga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga42%
×Draw28%
Moghreb Tetouan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.29
Moghreb Tetouan
1.05

Olympique Khouribga creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 91 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.23
Moghreb Tetouan
0.89

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.22
Moghreb Tetouan
1.35

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
70%
Olympique Khouribga or Moghreb Tetouan
72%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
58%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
19%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
72%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
37%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
14%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
65%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
28%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
58%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
42%
level
28%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
30%

Olympique Khouribga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Moghreb Tetouan

Olympique Khouribga beat Moghreb Tetouan 2-1 in Botola Pro on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate (Khouribga).