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Moghreb Tetouan vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
10/10/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 30Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan43%
×Draw30%
Olympique Khouribga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.20
Olympique Khouribga
0.90

Moghreb Tetouan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
72%
Moghreb Tetouan or Olympique Khouribga
70%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
57%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
19%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
70%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
34%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
12%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
59%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
61%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
43%
level
30%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
28%

Moghreb Tetouan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moghreb Tetouan vs Olympique Khouribga

Moghreb Tetouan beat Olympique Khouribga 2-1 in Botola Pro on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.