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Olympique Khouribga vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
10/1/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 4Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Khouribga40%
×Draw32%
Kawkab Marrakech28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.05
Kawkab Marrakech
0.81

Olympique Khouribga creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
72%
Olympique Khouribga or Kawkab Marrakech
68%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
60%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
16%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
65%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
28%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
9%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
56%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
19%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
59%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
40%
level
32%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
28%

Olympique Khouribga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Kawkab Marrakech

Olympique Khouribga beat Kawkab Marrakech 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.