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Olympique Khouribga vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
9/8/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga42%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Tanger30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.31
Ittihad Tanger
1.05

Olympique Khouribga creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.23
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.22
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
70%
Olympique Khouribga or Ittihad Tanger
72%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
58%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
19%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
73%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
38%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
14%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
65%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
28%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
59%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
42%
level
28%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
30%

Olympique Khouribga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Olympique Khouribga 0–1 Ittihad Tanger

Ittihad Tanger beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Botola Pro on September 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.