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Olympique Khouribga vs Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
3 – 0
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
3/28/2025CupCup · 16th FinalsStade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Khouribga64%
×Draw20%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
2.08
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
0.92

Olympique Khouribga creates 126% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
1.00

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
3.00

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
84%
Olympique Khouribga or Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
80%
Draw or Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
36%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
40%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
87%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
61%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
34%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 1+ goals
60%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 2+ goals
23%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
80%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah attack 1.00 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
64%
level
20%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah scores more
16%

Olympique Khouribga at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah

Olympique Khouribga beat Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 3-0 in Cup on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.