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Olympique Khouribga vs Hassania Agadir — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
4/6/2025CupCup · 8th FinalsStade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Khouribga33%
×Draw29%
Hassania Agadir38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.08
Hassania Agadir
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
Hassania Agadir
1.50

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
Hassania Agadir
1.00

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
62%
Olympique Khouribga or Hassania Agadir
71%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
67%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
13%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
66%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
29%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
10%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
69%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
33%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
47%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hassania Agadir attack 1.50 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
33%
level
29%
Hassania Agadir scores more
38%

Hassania Agadir at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Hassania Agadir

Olympique Khouribga beat Hassania Agadir 2-1 in Cup on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.