Olympique de Valence 0–1 Paris FC: Result & Stats

Olympique de Valence

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paris FC

F. Martin 98'

12/8/2019

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Georges-Pompidou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympique de Valence23%

×Draw26%

Paris FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique de ValenceExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.47

Olympique de Valence

0.91

Paris FC

1.47

Paris FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.69

1.25

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Olympique de Valence

1.00

Paris FC

1.69

allows per match

Olympique de Valence

1.25

Paris FC

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique de Valence+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Valence ↓

Paris FC →

0–09%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olympique de Valence or draw

50%

Olympique de Valence or Paris FC

74%

Draw or Paris FC

77%

Winning margin

Olympique de Valence wins by 2+

Paris FC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Olympique de Valence 1+ goals

60%

Olympique de Valence 2+ goals

23%

Olympique de Valence 3+ goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

77%

Paris FC 2+ goals

43%

Paris FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Valence (draw refunded)

32%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Valence at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Valence attack 1.00 + Paris FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Paris FC attack 1.69 + Olympique de Valence defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olympique de Valence scores more

23%

level

26%

Paris FC scores more

50%

Paris FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

E. Boahene← J. Hugonet

67'

R. Gachet← M. Degache

71'

O. Abdeldjelil← M. Mara

78'

R. Sila← M. Maletić

80'

L. Manine← K. Merabet

98'

B. Alceus← A. Sarr

98'

F. Martin

102'

N. Imberteche← L. Manine

Olympique

Paris

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Vivant

67'▲R. Gachet←▼M. Degache

80'▲L. Manine←▼K. Merabet

102'▲N. Imberteche←▼L. Manine

Olympique de Valence substitutes

GachetManineImbertecheGirouinTherme

Manager: M. Baždarević

35'▲E. Boahene←▼J. Hugonet

71'▲O. Abdeldjelil←▼M. Mara

78'▲R. Sila←▼M. Maletić

98'▲B. Alceus←▼A. Sarr

Paris FC substitutes

BoaheneAbdeldjelilSilaAlceusMaisonnial