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Olympique de Genève vs Naters — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
CANC
00:00
Naters
Naters
5/16/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Centre sportif de Varembé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olympique de Genève39%
×Draw24%
Naters37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique de Genève
1.56
Naters
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Olympique de Genève
1.38
Naters
1.48

allows per match

Olympique de Genève
1.54
Naters
1.74

finishing

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par
Naters+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Genève ↓

Naters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Olympique de Genève or draw
63%
Olympique de Genève or Naters
76%
Draw or Naters
61%

Winning margin

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
19%
Naters wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
79%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
46%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
21%
Naters 1+ goals
78%
Naters 2+ goals
44%
Naters 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
51%
Naters (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Genève at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Naters away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Genève attack 1.38 + Naters defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Naters attack 1.48 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympique de Genève scores more
39%
level
24%
Naters scores more
37%

Olympique de Genève at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique de Genève will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympique de Genève face Naters (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Olympique de Genève hosting Naters. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Olympique de Genève host Naters at Centre sportif de Varembé.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.