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Olympique de Genève vs Lausanne Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
FT
1 – 0
Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
10/4/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Centre sportif de Varembé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olympique de Genève33%
×Draw24%
Lausanne Sport II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique de Genève
1.46
Lausanne Sport II
1.69

Lausanne Sport II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 58 away

creates per match

Olympique de Genève
1.38
Lausanne Sport II
1.83

allows per match

Olympique de Genève
1.54
Lausanne Sport II
1.53

finishing

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par
Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Genève ↓

Lausanne Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Olympique de Genève or draw
57%
Olympique de Genève or Lausanne Sport II
76%
Draw or Lausanne Sport II
67%

Winning margin

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
15%
Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
77%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
43%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
18%
Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
82%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
50%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
44%
Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Genève at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Genève attack 1.38 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.83 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique de Genève scores more
33%
level
24%
Lausanne Sport II scores more
43%

Lausanne Sport II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Olympique de Genève 1–0 Lausanne Sport II

Olympique de Genève beat Lausanne Sport II 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Varembé in Genève.