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Olympique Dcheïra vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
2 – 0
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
1/26/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Ahmed Fana (Dcheïra El Jihadia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra50%
×Draw28%
Sidi Kacem22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.39
Sidi Kacem
0.82

Olympique Dcheïra creates 70% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 30 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.44
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.78
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
78%
Olympique Dcheïra or Sidi Kacem
72%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
50%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
25%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
75%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
40%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
16%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
56%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
20%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
69%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
50%
level
28%
Sidi Kacem scores more
22%

Olympique Dcheïra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Olympique Dcheïra 2–0 Sidi Kacem

Olympique Dcheïra beat Sidi Kacem 2-0 in Botola 2 on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Fana (Dcheïra El Jihadia).