Olympique Dcheïra 2–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Olympique Dcheïra

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kawkab Marrakech

A. Bennadi 71' (pen)

R. Abardi 47'

H. El Janati 45'

9/27/2025

Botola Pro · Round 3Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra32%

×Draw29%

Kawkab Marrakech39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique DcheïraExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.16

Olympique Dcheïra

1.02

Kawkab Marrakech

1.16

Kawkab Marrakech creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

0.69

creates per match

0.76

1.56

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra

0.69

Kawkab Marrakech

0.76

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra

1.56

Kawkab Marrakech

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw

61%

Olympique Dcheïra or Kawkab Marrakech

71%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

68%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

12%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

64%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

27%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

8%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

69%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

32%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

45%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 0.69 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.76 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

32%

level

29%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

39%

Kawkab Marrakech at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

C. Gnolou

40'

H. Rafa

42'

H. Saoud

45'

H. El Janati↳ I. Mihrab

46'

Y. Fahmi← R. Oubidar

46'

A. Aghou← I. Ait Hamou

47'

R. Abardi↳ A. Bennadi

65'

S. Essallami← Y. Zghoudi

65'

S. Cisse← Y. Raiani

67'

J. Omurwa

71'

A. BennadiPenalty

74'

74'

75'

80'

81'

87'

K. Tamrani← H. El Janati

87'

N. Lougmani← M. Elabdi

90+6'

N. Lougmani

90+6'

M. Abba

90+2'

K. Raiss← H. Saoud

Olympique

Kawkab

22

26

4

55

31

▼

Elabdi

21

Rafa

35

Gnolou

19

A

▼

Mihrab

6

⚽

▼

Janati

17

▼

Zghoudi

24

▼

1

15

4

32

37

10

▼

Saoud

6

▼

Oubidar

98

▼

Hamou

2

⚽A

Bennadi

20

▼

Adjar

62

⚽

▼

Abardi

Manager: Abderrahim Saidi

46'▲Y. Fahmi←▼R. Oubidar

46'▲A. Aghou←▼I. Ait Hamou

74'▲Y. Khafi←▼M. Adjar

74'▲M. Abba←▼R. Abardi

90+2'▲K. Raiss←▼H. Saoud

Olympique Dcheïra substitutes

17Abderahim12Koutouby5Aboujemaa3Khafi24Fahmi38Raiss97Jazouli26Aghou77Abba

Manager: Hicham Dmiai

65'▲S. Essallami←▼Y. Zghoudi

65'▲S. Cisse←▼Y. Raiani

81'▲H. Founti←▼I. Mihrab

87'▲K. Tamrani←▼H. El Janati

87'▲N. Lougmani←▼M. Elabdi

Kawkab Marrakech substitutes

1Baayou2Gazaoui8Tamrani11Essallami99Haffari18Cisse77Lougmani7Founti14Smaali

Botola Pro: Olympique Dcheïra 2–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Olympique Dcheïra beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-1 in Botola Pro on September 27, 2025.

Goals: H. El Janati (45'), R. Abardi (47'), A. Bennadi (71' pen).

The match was played at Stade Adrar in Agadir.

Olympique Dcheïra vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Botola Pro: Olympique Dcheïra 2–1 Kawkab Marrakech