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Olympique Dcheïra vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
A. Al-Maamouri 76'
A. Bennadi 61'
H. Marchad 90'
4/13/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade Mohand Zaait Trust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra46%
×Draw30%
Kawkab Marrakech24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.21
Kawkab Marrakech
0.78

Olympique Dcheïra creates 55% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 74 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.44
Kawkab Marrakech
0.78

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.78
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
76%
Olympique Dcheïra or Kawkab Marrakech
70%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
54%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
21%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
12%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
54%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
18%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
66%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.78 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
46%
level
30%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
24%

Olympique Dcheïra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
A. Bennadi
76'
A. Al-Maamouri
90'
H. Marchad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Dcheïra vs Kawkab Marrakech

Olympique Dcheïra beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-1 in Botola 2 on April 13, 2024.

Goals: A. Bennadi (61'), A. Al-Maamouri (76'), H. Marchad (90').

The match was played at Stade Mohand Zaait Trust in Inezgane.