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Olympique Dcheïra vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
0 – 0
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
12/10/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra48%
×Draw28%
KAC Kenitra24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.33
KAC Kenitra
0.85

Olympique Dcheïra creates 56% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 73 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.41
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.77
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
76%
Olympique Dcheïra or KAC Kenitra
72%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
52%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
23%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
74%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
38%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
15%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
57%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
21%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
67%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.77 · 104 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.41 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
48%
level
28%
KAC Kenitra scores more
24%

Olympique Dcheïra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Olympique Dcheïra 0–0 KAC Kenitra

Olympique Dcheïra and KAC Kenitra drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.