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Olympique Dcheïra vs Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah — Cup 2020

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïraadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
3/23/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra70%
×Draw17%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
2.50
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
1.00

Olympique Dcheïra creates 150% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
2.00
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
1.00

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.00
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
3.00

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
87%
Olympique Dcheïra or Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
83%
Draw or Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah
30%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
47%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
92%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
71%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
45%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 1+ goals
63%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 2+ goals
26%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
84%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 2.00 + Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah attack 1.00 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
70%
level
17%
Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah scores more
13%

Olympique Dcheïra at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Olympique Dcheïra 3–1 Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah

Olympique Dcheïra beat Ittihad Fkih Ben Salah 3-1 in Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.