Olympique Dcheïra 0–0 CODM Meknès: Result & Stats

Olympique Dcheïra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CODM Meknès

11/25/2023

Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Ahmed Fana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra43%

×Draw30%

CODM Meknès27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique DcheïraExpected goals in this matchCODM Meknès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.85

Olympique Dcheïra

1.16

CODM Meknès

0.85

Olympique Dcheïra creates 36% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

0.93

0.78

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra

1.44

CODM Meknès

0.93

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra

0.78

CODM Meknès

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

CODM Meknès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw

73%

Olympique Dcheïra or CODM Meknès

70%

Draw or CODM Meknès

57%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

18%

CODM Meknès wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

69%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

32%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

11%

CODM Meknès 1+ goals

57%

CODM Meknès 2+ goals

21%

CODM Meknès 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

62%

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

43%

level

30%

CODM Meknès scores more

27%

Olympique Dcheïra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff