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Olympique Dcheïra vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
3 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
10/9/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 30Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra57%
×Draw27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.46
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.63

Olympique Dcheïra creates 132% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.44
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.78
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
84%
Olympique Dcheïra or Chabab RIF Hoceima
73%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
43%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
77%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
43%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
18%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
47%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
13%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
78%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
57%
level
27%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
16%

Olympique Dcheïra at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Olympique Dcheïra 3–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Olympique Dcheïra beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 3-1 in Botola 2 on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.