Olympique d'Alès 1–2 Paris FC: Result & Stats

Olympique d'Alès

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Paris FC

1/6/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Pierre Pibarot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Olympique d'Alès30%

×Draw24%

Paris FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique d'AlèsExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.65

Olympique d'Alès

1.31

Paris FC

1.65

Paris FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

1.80

creates per match

1.69

1.60

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Olympique d'Alès

1.80

Paris FC

1.69

allows per match

Olympique d'Alès

1.60

Paris FC

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique d'Alès+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique d'Alès ↓

Paris FC →

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Olympique d'Alès or draw

55%

Olympique d'Alès or Paris FC

76%

Draw or Paris FC

70%

Winning margin

Olympique d'Alès wins by 2+

13%

Paris FC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Olympique d'Alès 1+ goals

73%

Olympique d'Alès 2+ goals

38%

Olympique d'Alès 3+ goals

14%

Paris FC 1+ goals

81%

Paris FC 2+ goals

49%

Paris FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olympique d'Alès (draw refunded)

40%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympique d'Alès at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympique d'Alès attack 1.80 + Paris FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Paris FC attack 1.69 + Olympique d'Alès defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olympique d'Alès scores more

30%

level

24%

Paris FC scores more

45%

Paris FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff