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Olympique Béja vs M'saken — Cup 2019

Olympique Béja
Olympique Béja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
M'saken
M'sakenadvanced
M. A. Boukadida 72'
4/5/2025CupCup · Round of 32Stade Azaiez Jaballah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Béja34%
×Draw27%
M'saken40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Béja
1.20
M'saken
1.33

M'saken creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olympique Béja
1.00
M'saken
1.00

allows per match

Olympique Béja
1.67
M'saken
1.40

finishing

Olympique Béja+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Béja ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olympique Béja or draw
60%
Olympique Béja or M'saken
73%
Draw or M'saken
66%

Winning margin

Olympique Béja wins by 2+
14%
M'saken wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olympique Béja 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Béja 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Béja 3+ goals
12%
M'saken 1+ goals
74%
M'saken 2+ goals
38%
M'saken 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olympique Béja (draw refunded)
46%
M'saken (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Béja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

M'saken away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Béja attack 1.00 + M'saken defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

M'saken attack 1.00 + Olympique Béja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Béja scores more
34%
level
27%
M'saken scores more
40%

M'saken at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
M. A. Boukadida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Béja vs M'saken

M'saken beat Olympique Béja 1-0 in Cup on April 5, 2025.

Goals: M. A. Boukadida (72').

The match was played at Stade Azaiez Jaballah in Menzel Bourguiba.