Olympique Béja 1–1 Jerba: Result & Stats | Cup

Olympique Béja

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jerba

R. Homri 120' (pen)

M. H. Hadouchi 59'

H. Zendah 63'

5/19/2024

Cup · Round of 16Stade Chedly-Zouiten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Béja21%

×Draw26%

Jerba53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique BéjaExpected goals in this matchJerba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.50

Olympique Béja

0.83

Jerba

1.50

Jerba creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Olympique Béja

1.00

Jerba

1.33

allows per match

Olympique Béja

1.67

Jerba

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Béja+0.00on par

Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Béja ↓

Jerba →

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Béja or draw

47%

Olympique Béja or Jerba

74%

Draw or Jerba

79%

Winning margin

Olympique Béja wins by 2+

Jerba wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Olympique Béja 1+ goals

56%

Olympique Béja 2+ goals

20%

Olympique Béja 3+ goals

Jerba 1+ goals

78%

Jerba 2+ goals

44%

Jerba 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Olympique Béja (draw refunded)

28%

Jerba (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympique Béja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Jerba away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Béja attack 1.00 + Jerba defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Jerba attack 1.33 + Olympique Béja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olympique Béja scores more

21%

level

26%

Jerba scores more

53%

Jerba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

M. H. Hadouchi

63'

H. Zendah

119'

120'

R. HomriPenalty

120+1'

M. Filali

120+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff