Olympique Béja vs ES Zarzis — League #202 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Olympique Béja38%
ES Zarzis31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Olympique Béja creates 14% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Olympique Béja ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Olympique Béja at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches
ES Zarzis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Olympique Béja attack 0.90 + ES Zarzis defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09
ES Zarzis attack 0.84 + Olympique Béja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Olympique Béja at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Olympique Béja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
ES Sahel
Club Africain
Stade TunisienES Zarzis
AS Soliman
JS Kairouanaise
US Monastirienne
CS Sfaxien
ES Metlaoui
ES Tunis
CA Bizertin
Jeunesse Sportive OmraneOlympique Béja
US Ben Guerdane
AS Gabes
AS MarsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Olympique Béja host ES Zarzis on Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 13:30. The match is part of the League #202 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Olympique Béja vs ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis beat Olympique Béja 3-0 in League #202 on October 26, 2025.
Goals: O. Stanley (45'), I. Nshuti (64', 73').
The match was played at Boujemaa Kmiti Stadium.