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Olympique Akbou vs ES Setif — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ES Setif
ES Setif
11/23/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Olympique Akbou44%
×Draw31%
ES Setif25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Akbou
1.15
ES Setif
0.78

Olympique Akbou creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 122 away

creates per match

Olympique Akbou
1.03
ES Setif
0.89

allows per match

Olympique Akbou
0.67
ES Setif
1.27

finishing

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par
ES Setif+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Akbou ↓

ES Setif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Akbou or draw
75%
Olympique Akbou or ES Setif
69%
Draw or ES Setif
56%

Winning margin

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
19%
ES Setif wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
68%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
11%
ES Setif 1+ goals
54%
ES Setif 2+ goals
18%
ES Setif 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
64%
ES Setif (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Akbou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

ES Setif away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Akbou attack 1.03 + ES Setif defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

ES Setif attack 0.89 + Olympique Akbou defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympique Akbou scores more
44%
level
31%
ES Setif scores more
25%

Olympique Akbou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympique Akbou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Akbou vs ES Setif

ES Setif beat Olympique Akbou 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine in Béjaïa.