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Olympique Akbou vs El Bayadh — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Bayadh
El Bayadh
10/17/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Olympique Akbou48%
×Draw31%
El Bayadh21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Akbou
1.17
El Bayadh
0.66

Olympique Akbou creates 77% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Olympique Akbou
1.03
El Bayadh
0.65

allows per match

Olympique Akbou
0.67
El Bayadh
1.30

finishing

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par
El Bayadh+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Akbou ↓

El Bayadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Olympique Akbou or draw
79%
Olympique Akbou or El Bayadh
69%
Draw or El Bayadh
52%

Winning margin

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
21%
El Bayadh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
69%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
33%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
11%
El Bayadh 1+ goals
48%
El Bayadh 2+ goals
14%
El Bayadh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
70%
El Bayadh (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Akbou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

El Bayadh away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Akbou attack 1.03 + El Bayadh defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

El Bayadh attack 0.65 + Olympique Akbou defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olympique Akbou scores more
48%
level
31%
El Bayadh scores more
21%

Olympique Akbou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olympique Akbou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Akbou vs El Bayadh

Olympique Akbou beat El Bayadh 1-0 in Ligue 1 on October 17, 2025.