Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olympie Březová vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
FT
3 – 2
Dobříš
Dobříš
9/28/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 15Stadion TJ Olympie Březová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Olympie Březová62%
×Draw18%
Dobříš20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympie Březová
2.60
Dobříš
1.45

Olympie Březová creates 79% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 24 away

creates per match

Olympie Březová
1.79
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Olympie Březová
1.94
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Olympie Březová+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympie Březová ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Olympie Březová or draw
80%
Olympie Březová or Dobříš
82%
Draw or Dobříš
38%

Winning margin

Olympie Březová wins by 2+
41%
Dobříš wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olympie Březová 1+ goals
92%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
73%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
47%
Dobříš 1+ goals
77%
Dobříš 2+ goals
42%
Dobříš 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
75%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympie Březová at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.94 · 80 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympie Březová attack 1.79 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.60

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Olympie Březová defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Olympie Březová scores more
62%
level
18%
Dobříš scores more
20%

Olympie Březová at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympie Březová 3 – 2 Dobříš

Olympie Březová beat Dobříš 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Olympie Březová in Březová.