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Olympic vs Western Pride — Queensland NPL 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
3 – 2
Western Pride
Western Pride
2/17/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 3Goodwin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olympic61%
×Draw21%
Western Pride19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
2.10
Western Pride
1.07

Olympic creates 96% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 14 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.91
Western Pride
1.00

allows per match

Olympic
1.15
Western Pride
2.29

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
81%
Olympic or Western Pride
79%
Draw or Western Pride
39%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
37%
Western Pride wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
88%
Olympic 2+ goals
62%
Olympic 3+ goals
35%
Western Pride 1+ goals
66%
Western Pride 2+ goals
29%
Western Pride 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
77%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.91 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.10

Western Pride attack 1.00 + Olympic defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Olympic scores more
61%
level
21%
Western Pride scores more
19%

Olympic at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs Western Pride

Olympic beat Western Pride 3-2 in Queensland NPL on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Goodwin Park in Brisbane.