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Olympic vs Tulevik — Cup 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Tulevik
Tulevikadvanced
6/18/2025CupCup · Round of 128Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Olympic30%
×Draw17%
Tulevik52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
2.58
Tulevik
3.35

Tulevik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.29
Tulevik
3.57

allows per match

Olympic
3.14
Tulevik
3.86

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Tulevik+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Tulevik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
48%
Olympic or Tulevik
83%
Draw or Tulevik
70%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
17%
Tulevik wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
92%
Olympic 2+ goals
72%
Olympic 3+ goals
47%
Tulevik 1+ goals
96%
Tulevik 2+ goals
84%
Tulevik 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
37%
Tulevik (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Tulevik away — creates 3.57, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.29 + Tulevik defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.58

Tulevik attack 3.57 + Olympic defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olympic scores more
30%
level
17%
Tulevik scores more
52%

Tulevik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tulevik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs Tulevik

Tulevik beat Olympic 6-0 in Cup on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.