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Olympic vs Poseidon — Cup 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
1 – 2
Poseidon
Poseidon
7/29/2020CupCup · 64th FinalsNike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olympic21%
×Draw16%
Poseidon63%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.84
Poseidon
3.17

Poseidon creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.29
Poseidon
3.20

allows per match

Olympic
3.14
Poseidon
2.40

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Poseidon+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Poseidon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
37%
Olympic or Poseidon
84%
Draw or Poseidon
79%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
10%
Poseidon wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
84%
Olympic 2+ goals
55%
Olympic 3+ goals
28%
Poseidon 1+ goals
96%
Poseidon 2+ goals
82%
Poseidon 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
25%
Poseidon (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Poseidon away — creates 3.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.29 + Poseidon defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Poseidon attack 3.20 + Olympic defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Olympic scores more
21%
level
16%
Poseidon scores more
63%

Poseidon at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Poseidon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs Poseidon

Poseidon beat Olympic 2-1 in Cup on July 29, 2020.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.