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Olympic vs Moreton City Excelsior — Queensland NPL 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior
2/25/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 1Goodwin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Olympic35%
×Draw24%
Moreton City Excelsior41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.44
Moreton City Excelsior
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 31 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.91
Moreton City Excelsior
2.00

allows per match

Olympic
1.15
Moreton City Excelsior
0.97

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Moreton City Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
59%
Olympic or Moreton City Excelsior
76%
Draw or Moreton City Excelsior
65%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
16%
Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
76%
Olympic 2+ goals
42%
Olympic 3+ goals
18%
Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals
79%
Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals
46%
Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
46%
Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

Moreton City Excelsior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.91 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.00 + Olympic defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympic scores more
35%
level
24%
Moreton City Excelsior scores more
41%

Moreton City Excelsior at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Olympic 1–1 Moreton City Excelsior

Olympic and Moreton City Excelsior drew 1-1 in Queensland NPL on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Goodwin Park in Brisbane.