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Olympic vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Olympic
Olympic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
9/17/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundEleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympic17%
×Draw19%
Malmo FF63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.12
Malmo FF
2.30

Malmo FF creates 105% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.67
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

Olympic
1.67
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
37%
Olympic or Malmo FF
81%
Draw or Malmo FF
83%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
6%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
67%
Olympic 2+ goals
31%
Olympic 3+ goals
10%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
90%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
67%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
22%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.67 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + Olympic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Olympic scores more
17%
level
19%
Malmo FF scores more
63%

Malmo FF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Olympic 0–1 Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat Olympic 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.