Olympic 0–8 Laagri: Result & Stats | Cup

Olympic

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 4

Laagri

A. Kose 74'

D. Rudenko 73', 41'

R. Reimaa 63', 55'

T. Usta 38', 25'

A. Järva 12'

9/11/2023

Cup · Round of 32Aruküla staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympic3%

×Draw5%

Laagri92%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlympicExpected goals in this matchLaagri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

6.16

Olympic

1.31

Laagri

6.16

Laagri creates 370% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

9.17

3.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Olympic

1.29

Laagri

9.17

allows per match

Olympic

3.14

Laagri

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par

Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over96
Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Laagri →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–34%

0–46%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–35%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 45% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

96%4%3.5

90%10%4.5

77%23%

Double chance

Olympic or draw

Olympic or Laagri

95%

Draw or Laagri

97%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+

Laagri wins by 2+

82%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals

73%

Olympic 2+ goals

38%

Olympic 3+ goals

14%

Laagri 1+ goals

100%

Laagri 2+ goals

97%

Laagri 3+ goals

90%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)

Laagri (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Laagri away — creates 9.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.29 + Laagri defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Laagri attack 9.17 + Olympic defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 6.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

Olympic scores more

level

Laagri scores more

92%

Laagri at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

25'

38'

41'

55'

63'

73'

74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff