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Olympic vs JK Tabasalu — Cup 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasaluadvanced
M. Meresmaa 80'
M. Ormisson 71', 58'
A. Anepaio 61', 14'
9/14/2022CupCup · Round of 32Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Olympic10%
×Draw11%
JK Tabasalu79%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.43
JK Tabasalu
3.96

JK Tabasalu creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.29
JK Tabasalu
4.78

allows per match

Olympic
3.14
JK Tabasalu
1.56

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
21%
Olympic or JK Tabasalu
89%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
90%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
4%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
76%
Olympic 2+ goals
42%
Olympic 3+ goals
17%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
98%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
89%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
11%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.29 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

JK Tabasalu attack 4.78 + Olympic defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Olympic scores more
10%
level
11%
JK Tabasalu scores more
79%

JK Tabasalu at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Anepaio
58'
M. Ormisson
61'
A. Anepaio
71'
M. Ormisson
80'
M. Meresmaa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs JK Tabasalu

JK Tabasalu beat Olympic 5-0 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

Goals: A. Anepaio (14', 61'), M. Ormisson (58', 71'), M. Meresmaa (80').

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.