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Olympic vs Gold Coast Knights — Queensland NPL 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
7/6/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 16Goodwin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Olympic37%
×Draw23%
Gold Coast Knights39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.59
Gold Coast Knights
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 93 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.91
Gold Coast Knights
2.12

allows per match

Olympic
1.15
Gold Coast Knights
1.28

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Gold Coast Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
61%
Olympic or Gold Coast Knights
77%
Draw or Gold Coast Knights
63%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
18%
Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
80%
Olympic 2+ goals
47%
Olympic 3+ goals
21%
Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
81%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
49%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
49%
Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

Gold Coast Knights away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.91 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.12 + Olympic defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympic scores more
37%
level
23%
Gold Coast Knights scores more
39%

Gold Coast Knights at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Olympic 2–0 Gold Coast Knights

Olympic beat Gold Coast Knights 2-0 in Queensland NPL on July 6, 2025.

The match was played at Goodwin Park in Brisbane.