Olympic Charleroi vs Kortrijk — League #145 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Olympic Charleroi10%
Kortrijk70%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kortrijk creates 224% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Olympic Charleroi ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Olympic Charleroi at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches
Kortrijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Olympic Charleroi attack 0.00 + Kortrijk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.63
Kortrijk attack 1.75 + Olympic Charleroi defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
Kortrijk at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Olympic Charleroi substitutes
Head to Head
AS Eupen
Lokeren-Temse
Club Brugge IIKortrijk
Beerschot VA
Liège
K. Lierse S.K.
SK Beveren
RWDM
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
Lommel United
Patro Eisden
Francs Borains
RSC Anderlecht IIOlympic CharleroiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Olympic Charleroi host Kortrijk on Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the League #145 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Olympic Charleroi vs Kortrijk
Kortrijk beat Olympic Charleroi 3-0 in League #145 on August 23, 2025.
Goals: T. Ambrose (12' pen, 29'), L. De Smet (60').
The match was played at Stade de la Neuville in Charleroi.