Olympic Azzaweya 3–2 Al-Magd: Result & Stats

Olympic Azzaweya

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Al-Magd

3/14/2025

Premier League · West - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Olympic Azzaweya48%

×Draw25%

Al-Magd27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympic AzzaweyaExpected goals in this matchAl-Magd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Olympic Azzaweya

1.54

Al-Magd

1.08

Olympic Azzaweya creates 43% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

1.34

creates per match

1.31

0.85

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Olympic Azzaweya

1.34

Al-Magd

1.31

allows per match

Olympic Azzaweya

0.85

Al-Magd

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par

Al-Magd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic Azzaweya ↓

Al-Magd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olympic Azzaweya or draw

73%

Olympic Azzaweya or Al-Magd

75%

Draw or Al-Magd

52%

Winning margin

Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+

24%

Al-Magd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals

79%

Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals

45%

Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals

20%

Al-Magd 1+ goals

66%

Al-Magd 2+ goals

29%

Al-Magd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)

64%

Al-Magd (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic Azzaweya at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Al-Magd away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.34 + Al-Magd defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al-Magd attack 1.31 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olympic Azzaweya scores more

48%

level

25%

Al-Magd scores more

27%

Olympic Azzaweya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olympic Azzaweya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff