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Olympic Azzaweya vs Al-Khmes — Premier League 2019

Olympic Azzaweya
Olympic Azzaweya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Khmes
Al-Khmes
12/16/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Olympic Azzaweya51%
×Draw28%
Al-Khmes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic Azzaweya
1.35
Al-Khmes
0.77

Olympic Azzaweya creates 75% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 55 away

creates per match

Olympic Azzaweya
1.34
Al-Khmes
0.69

allows per match

Olympic Azzaweya
0.85
Al-Khmes
1.36

finishing

Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par
Al-Khmes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic Azzaweya ↓

Al-Khmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olympic Azzaweya or draw
79%
Olympic Azzaweya or Al-Khmes
72%
Draw or Al-Khmes
49%

Winning margin

Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+
24%
Al-Khmes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals
74%
Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals
39%
Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals
15%
Al-Khmes 1+ goals
54%
Al-Khmes 2+ goals
18%
Al-Khmes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)
70%
Al-Khmes (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic Azzaweya at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Al-Khmes away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.34 + Al-Khmes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al-Khmes attack 0.69 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olympic Azzaweya scores more
51%
level
28%
Al-Khmes scores more
21%

Olympic Azzaweya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olympic Azzaweya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Olympic Azzaweya 1–2 Al-Khmes

Al-Khmes beat Olympic Azzaweya 2-1 in Premier League on December 16, 2022.