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Olympiakos vs Pafos — 1. Division 2025

Olympiakos
Olympiakos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pafos
Pafos
P. Psychas 45+2'
B. Abdurahimi 22'
3/7/20231. Division1. Division · Round 26Makareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olympiakos29%
×Draw27%
Pafos44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos
1.09
Pafos
1.41

Pafos creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Olympiakos
0.94
Pafos
1.58

allows per match

Olympiakos
1.24
Pafos
1.25

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par
Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Pafos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw
56%
Olympiakos or Pafos
73%
Draw or Pafos
71%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+
11%
Pafos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals
66%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
30%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
10%
Pafos 1+ goals
76%
Pafos 2+ goals
41%
Pafos 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)
40%
Pafos (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.94 + Pafos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Pafos attack 1.58 + Olympiakos defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympiakos scores more
29%
level
27%
Pafos scores more
44%

Pafos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
B. Abdurahimi
31'
P. Bardy← T. Gorupec
45+2'
P. Psychas
46'
L. Enoh← P. Psychas
46'
O. Koroma← M. Šlogar
46'
E. Hestad← Bruno Felipe
46'
O. Valakari← Jefté Betancor
46'
Pedro Pelágio← M. Name
47'
Osman Koroma
67'
S. Charalambous← M. Pechlivanis
70'
Mamadou Kané
77'
N. Dosis← P. Giakoumakis
80'
Nikolaos Dosis
85'
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior
85'
L. Papastylianou← B. Abdurahimi
88'
Muamer Tanković

Shots

8Olympiakos

Statistics

OlympiakosPafos
Overview
8Total Shots8
2Corners5
19Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots8
4On Target5
3Off Target2
1Blocked1
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

1. Division: Olympiakos 1–1 Pafos

Olympiakos and Pafos drew 1-1 in 1. Division on March 7, 2023.

Goals: B. Abdurahimi (22'), P. Psychas (45+2').

The match was played at Makareio Stadio in Lefkosía.