Olympiakos 4–3 PAEEK: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Olympiakos

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

PAEEK

F. Nkwoh 70', 63'

E. Kyriakou 49' (pen)

Thiago Santos 23'

M. Babić 90'

A. Kouros 76'

Nico Varela 66'

5/6/2022

1. Division · Relegation Round - 8Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Olympiakos43%

×Draw27%

PAEEK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlympiakosExpected goals in this matchPAEEK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

Olympiakos

1.33

PAEEK

1.05

Olympiakos creates 27% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

0.97

creates per match

0.94

1.16

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Olympiakos

0.97

PAEEK

0.94

allows per match

Olympiakos

1.16

PAEEK

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par

PAEEK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

PAEEK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw

71%

Olympiakos or PAEEK

73%

Draw or PAEEK

57%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+

20%

PAEEK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals

74%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

38%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

15%

PAEEK 1+ goals

65%

PAEEK 2+ goals

28%

PAEEK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

59%

PAEEK (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

PAEEK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + PAEEK defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.33

PAEEK attack 0.94 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympiakos scores more

43%

level

27%

PAEEK scores more

29%

Olympiakos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Charalambos Aristotelous

23'

Thiago Santos

38'

Sambinha← Christian Manrique

42'

Andreas Makris

46'

E. Salli← F. Eftychidis

46'

F. Nkwoh← Z. Savva

46'

M. Pechlivanis← S. Charalambous

46'

N. Kaaijmolen← C. Pattichis

46'

A. Neophytou← T. van Amerongen

49'

E. KyriakouPenalty

61'

61'

61'

61'

63'

66'

70'

70'

74'

M. Christodoulou← Thiago Santos

75'

Lucas Ramos← A. Komodikis

76'

A. Kouros

90'

M. Babić

Statistics

OlympiakosPAEEK

Overview

2Corners2

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1