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Olympiakos vs Karmiotissa — Cup 2019

Olympiakos
Olympiakos
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
A. Zefki 88'
C. Triana 78', 39'
Patrick 18'
Simão Júnior 37' (OG)
10/25/2023CupCup · 1st RoundMakareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympiakos60%
×Draw19%
Karmiotissa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos
2.46
Karmiotissa
1.39

Olympiakos creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olympiakos
1.91
Karmiotissa
1.33

allows per match

Olympiakos
1.45
Karmiotissa
3.00

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par
Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Karmiotissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw
79%
Olympiakos or Karmiotissa
81%
Draw or Karmiotissa
40%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+
39%
Karmiotissa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals
91%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
70%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
44%
Karmiotissa 1+ goals
75%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
40%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)
74%
Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 1.91 + Karmiotissa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Karmiotissa attack 1.33 + Olympiakos defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olympiakos scores more
60%
level
19%
Karmiotissa scores more
21%

Olympiakos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Patrick
37'
Simão JúniorOwn goal
39'
C. Triana
78'
C. Triana
88'
A. Zefki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympiakos vs Karmiotissa

Olympiakos beat Karmiotissa 4-1 in Cup on October 25, 2023.

Goals: Patrick (18'), Simão Júnior (37' o.g.), C. Triana (39', 78'), A. Zefki (88').

The match was played at Makareio Stadio in Lefkosía.