Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 U Craiova 1948

Olympiakos Piraeus

2 – 0

U Craiova 1948

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Schwarzach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus37%

×Draw24%

U Craiova 194838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.52

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.50

U Craiova 1948

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

2.33

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

2.00

U Craiova 1948

2.33

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.71

U Craiova 1948

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

62%

Olympiakos Piraeus or U Craiova 1948

76%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

63%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

18%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

78%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

44%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

19%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

78%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

45%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

49%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 2.00 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

U Craiova 1948 attack 2.33 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

37%

level

24%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

38%

U Craiova 1948 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff