Olympiakos Piraeus 3–4 Real Madrid: Result & Stats

Olympiakos Piraeus

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Real Madrid

A. El Kaabi 81'

M. Taremi 52'

Chiquinho 8'

K. Mbappe 60', 29', 24', 22'

11/26/2025

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus37%

×Draw23%

Real Madrid40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.65

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.57

Real Madrid

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.23

creates per match

1.92

1.37

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.23

Real Madrid

1.92

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.37

Real Madrid

1.91

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus-0.03on par

Real Madrid+0.52scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Real Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

60%

Olympiakos Piraeus or Real Madrid

77%

Draw or Real Madrid

63%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

18%

Real Madrid wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

79%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

46%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

21%

Real Madrid 1+ goals

81%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

49%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

48%

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.37 · 5 matches

Real Madrid away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.91 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 + Real Madrid defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Real Madrid attack 1.92 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

37%

level

23%

Real Madrid scores more

40%

Real Madrid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Chiquinho↳ A. El Kaabi

22'

K. Mbappe↳ Vinicius Junior

23'

Eduardo Camavinga

24'

K. Mbappe↳ A. Guler

28'

M. Taremi← Chiquinho

29'

K. Mbappe↳ E. Camavinga

33'

Vinícius JúniorGoal cancelled

40'

Francisco Ortega

46'

S. Hezze← D. Garcia

46'

D. Ceballos← E. Camavinga

52'

M. Taremi↳ S. Hezze

56'

Arda Güler

60'

K. Mbappe↳ Vinicius Junior

61'

J. Bellingham← A. Guler

62'

G. Biancone← L. Pirola

71'

Costinha← Rodinei

71'

G. Strefezza← D. Podence

73'

B. Diaz← R. Asencio

81'

A. El Kaabi↳ G. Strefezza

90'

F. Garcia← Vinicius Junior

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlympiakosReal

Overview

41%Possession59%

18Total Shots15

1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.68

3Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots15

8On Target7

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

10Inside Box9

8Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

385Total Passes580

312Accurate Passes504

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-0.36Goals Prevented-0.36

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4