Olympiakos Piraeus 5–0 Panserraikos: Result & Stats

Olympiakos Piraeus

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Panserraikos

M. Taremi 90', 88'

D. Podence 70'

F. Ortega 66'

A. El Kaabi 48'

9/13/2025

Super League 1 · Round 3Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus71%

×Draw18%

Panserraikos11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchPanserraikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.70

Olympiakos Piraeus

2.19

Panserraikos

0.70

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 213% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 52 away

2.27

creates per match

0.81

0.59

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

2.27

Panserraikos

0.81

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.59

Panserraikos

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Panserraikos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Panserraikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

89%

Olympiakos Piraeus or Panserraikos

82%

Draw or Panserraikos

29%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

47%

Panserraikos wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

89%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

64%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

37%

Panserraikos 1+ goals

50%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

16%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

87%

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.59 · 137 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 2.27 + Panserraikos defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.19

Panserraikos attack 0.81 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

71%

level

18%

Panserraikos scores more

11%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

F. Ortega

Olympiakos Piraeus · D

9.2

Match Events

17'

Zidane Banjaqui

18'

G. Strefezza← G. Martins

34'

Andre GreenCard upgrade

35'

Andre Green

48'

A. El Kaabi↳ F. Ortega

51'

C. Nunnely← Z. Banjaqui

66'

F. Ortega↳ R. Cabella

68'

D. Podence← R. Cabella

69'

M. Taremi← A. El Kaabi

70'

D. Podence↳ Chiquinho

73'

Vernon De Marco

75'

L. Scipioni← S. Hezze

75'

Y. Yazici← Chiquinho

76'

Ché Nunnely

79'

M. Guillaumier← A. Liasos

79'

G. Doiranlis← M. Fale

80'

A. Karasalidis← V. De Marco

88'

M. Taremi↳ D. Podence

90+1'

A. Savvidis← A. Ivan

90'

M. Taremi↳ Y. Yazici

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlympiakosPanserraikos

Overview

83%Possession17%

29Total Shots1

11Corners0

8Fouls14

Shots

29Total Shots1

12On Target1

11Off Target0

6Blocked0

19Inside Box1

10Outside Box0

Passing

83%Possession17%

659Total Passes145

587Accurate Passes67

89%Pass Accuracy46%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2