Olympiakos Piraeus 1–3 Panathinaikos

Olympiakos Piraeus

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Panathinaikos

3/10/2024

Super League 1 · Championship Round - 1Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus55%

×Draw25%

Panathinaikos20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchPanathinaikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.88

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.64

Panathinaikos

0.88

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 86% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 137 away

2.27

creates per match

1.17

0.59

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

2.27

Panathinaikos

1.17

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.59

Panathinaikos

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Panathinaikos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Panathinaikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

80%

Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos

75%

Draw or Panathinaikos

45%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

30%

Panathinaikos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

81%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

49%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

23%

Panathinaikos 1+ goals

59%

Panathinaikos 2+ goals

22%

Panathinaikos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

73%

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.59 · 137 matches

Panathinaikos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 2.27 + Panathinaikos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.64

Panathinaikos attack 1.17 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

55%

level

25%

Panathinaikos scores more

20%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff