Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 Pafos: Result & Stats

Olympiakos Piraeus

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pafos

9/17/2025

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus32%

×Draw32%

Pafos36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.98

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.89

Pafos

0.98

Pafos creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

0.57

1.40

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.20

Pafos

0.57

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.40

Pafos

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

64%

Olympiakos Piraeus or Pafos

68%

Draw or Pafos

68%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

11%

Pafos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

59%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

22%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

6%

Pafos 1+ goals

62%

Pafos 2+ goals

26%

Pafos 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

46%

Pafos (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Pafos away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.20 + Pafos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.89

Pafos attack 0.57 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

32%

level

32%

Pafos scores more

36%

Pafos at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

20'

25'

25'

33'

K. Pileas← David Luiz

33'

M. Orsic← L. Dimata

36'

Lorenzo Pirola

46'

C. Mouzakitis← D. Garcia

46'

M. Taremi← G. Strefezza

61'

Costinha← Rodinei

70'

Mehdi TaremiRed card cancelled

72'

Mehdi Taremi

75'

G. Biancone← L. Pirola

75'

S. Pnevmonidis← S. Hezze

76'

K. Sema← Jaja

76'

B. Langa← J. Correia

85'

Anderson Silva← V. Dragomir

88'

Bruno Langa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlympiakosPafos

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots6

1.52Expected Goals (xG)0.30

9Corners0

15Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots6

3On Target1

8Off Target5

7Blocked0

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

533Total Passes251

444Accurate Passes168

83%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.31Goals Prevented0.31

Discipline

15Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Pafos

Olympiakos Piraeus and Pafos drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on September 17, 2025.

Olympiakos Piraeus controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Pafos — UEFA Champions League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Pafos