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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia — Super League 1 2018

Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lamia
Lamia
4/28/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Championship Round - 8Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus67%
×Draw21%
Lamia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.91
Lamia
0.65

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 194% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 119 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
2.27
Lamia
0.70

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
0.59
Lamia
1.54

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par
Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Lamia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw
88%
Olympiakos Piraeus or Lamia
79%
Draw or Lamia
33%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
41%
Lamia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
85%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
57%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
30%
Lamia 1+ goals
48%
Lamia 2+ goals
14%
Lamia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
85%
Lamia (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.59 · 137 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 2.27 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.91

Lamia attack 0.70 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
67%
level
21%
Lamia scores more
12%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 4-1 in Super League 1 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus.