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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeusadvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
5/29/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · FinalOPAP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus33%
×Draw24%
Fiorentina43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.45
Fiorentina
1.68

Fiorentina creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 27 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.75
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.50
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw
57%
Olympiakos Piraeus or Fiorentina
76%
Draw or Fiorentina
67%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
15%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
77%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
42%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
18%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
81%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
50%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
44%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.75 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
33%
level
24%
Fiorentina scores more
43%

Fiorentina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Fiorentina

Olympiakos Piraeus and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at OPAP Arena in Athens.