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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
2/15/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsStadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus25%
×Draw22%
Ferencvarosi TC53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.23
Ferencvarosi TC
1.90

Ferencvarosi TC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.75
Ferencvarosi TC
2.29

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.50
Ferencvarosi TC
0.71

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par
Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw
47%
Olympiakos Piraeus or Ferencvarosi TC
78%
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
75%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
10%
Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
71%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
35%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
13%
Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
85%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
56%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
32%
Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.75 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.29 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
25%
level
22%
Ferencvarosi TC scores more
53%

Ferencvarosi TC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Ferencvarosi TC

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus.